Ukraine, Russia, And The New World Of Machiavellian Realpolitik - Zelenskyy Must Go

Even a cursory look at world history and the political philosophies which underlie it, shows that territorialism, geopolitical hegemony, and empire are the rule rather than the exception.  Not only have empires been a part of history, but they are recalled by modern world leaders who see them as a Golden Age of high culture, moral principle, and order, and they are not wrong.  

The great empires of Persia, China, India, Japan, and Europe were indeed all characterized by periods of intellectual energy, wealth, and cultural influence. While criticized today as profoundly anti-liberal and dismissed by historical revisionists for their lack of inclusivity, civil rights, and democracy, they were the ineluctable, irreversible expressions of human enterprise and human nature. 

What is human nature but a defensive, territorial, competitive, survivalist mechanism?  It expresses itself in family, sexual competition, regional autonomy, and nationalism.   The behavior of children and the behavior of nations are similar.

Some political philosophers insist that with the proper care, will, and determination the world will evolve to a non-violent, inclusive, respectful place; that human nature can be blunted and overcome; but this is fantsy, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine is but the latest example.  

Vladimir Putin is no historical renegade, a delusional monomaniac, and a man out of touch with history.  He is expressing the same ambitions that the Shahs of Persia, the shoguns of Japan, and the emperors of China and India had.  Putin is not an anomaly or an outlier. He is one of many. 

The war in Ukraine has gone on now for years, and except for those frantically holding on to Cold War hysteria and the Domino Theory, most people want it resolved and ended - which will involve compromise - the ceding of Donbas to Russia, territories already Russian in language, cultural, and political allegiance, deferring consideration of Ukrainian NATO membership which Europe never really supported (the idea of defending a corrupt, venal, and self-interested regime was folly) and defining a new trade algorithm including grain, rare earths, and gas. 

Henry Kissinger, National Security Advisor and Secretary of State under Richard Nixon, was an advocate of realpolitik - a foreign policy devoid of moral exceptionalism and principle, which admitted and promoted alliances with whatever nation furthered America's interests, which committed America to positions of strength and a willingness to use it to promote its security and influence, and to engage in war only to further them. 

Kissinger was a Machiavellian:

Power is the pivot on which everything hinges. He who has the power is always right; the weaker is always wrong  

It is much safer to be feared than loved, if one of the two must be lacking. 

 

Politics have no relation to morality

The leader should know how to enter into evil when necessity commands

 

Donald Trump has revived realpolitik and Machiavelli. Support for Ukraine has been based on moral geopolitical principles - Ukraine is a bastion of democracy and a bulwark against Russian hegemonic imperialism, and no matter what the cost, it must be defended - which have no relevance to America's interests. 

Ukraine is of limited geopolitical import. While its rare earths and grain are of interest, America is not beholden to Ukraine for them.  It is not a military power nor is it geographically strategic.  It does not control waterways, land bridges, or critical airspace.  No Gulf of Aden or Straits of Hormuz. 

For all its protests, Ukraine is not a model of democracy, a fearsome defender of constitutional principles with the resolve and power to defend them.  The countless billions poured into the country for 'defense of democracy' have never been fully accounted for, and have served principally to keep what amounts to keeping a corrupt regime in power.   

Russia on the other hand is a member of the new Machiavellian triumvirate joining America and China in a nuclear power bloc which controls world geopolitics.  It cannot be ignored, and must be thought of as an adversary but not an enemy.  Alone or together with China, Russia to a large degree determines America's interests in the Middle East, the real center of geopolitics. 

Trillions have been spent propping up a Ukrainian regime run by profiteers and canny manipulators. Ukraine's 'democracy', has been far from the ideals of Oliver Cromwell, Jefferson and Hamilton, Locke and Thoreau, and the philosophers of the Enlightenment. Hardly worth supporting.  Yet the West has continued its idealistic generosity while the country was being destroyed.  

American focus should have been on Russia; and within a Machiavellian and Kissingerian foreign policy perspective, dealt directly with it, a world military and economic (resources) power. The United States after the fall of the Soviet Union missed its chance to form a productive alliance with Russia, and instead piled on.  It continued its Cold War animus and kicked Russia while it was down. NATO moved troops and missile bases closer to its borders deliberately sending the message that the country would never again threaten the European alliance.  The West bullied Russia, took advantage of it, and underestimated its power for resurgence and geopolitical influence. 

In the war in Ukraine, the West is still fighting the Cold War, and under the new geopolitical algorithm, Ukraine cannot win. 

Trump's recent deal with Russia for diesel fuel to help stabilize US pump prices is the latest example in America's new focus on realpolitik.  Throwing Ukraine under the bus?  Hardly, just practicing world politics as they should be played. Support for Ukraine was always for principle never for practical reality, and now Trump, radically changing course, becomes a worth adversary of Russia (and China). 

Cut all new financial and military support to Ukraine, thereby forcing it to the bargaining table.  The settlement will favor Russia but that was always in the cards and part of the realpolitik game.  

Any world leader who puts moral concerns over geopolitical ones is headed for defeat.  History's victors have been notoriously dismissive of morality.  Genghis Khan, who swept out of the steppes to conquer more than half of the known world was brutal, consequential, and single-minded.  The French kings who mobilized the Crusades were not tolerant, inclusive-minded monarchs, but rulers committed to punishing Muslims for their slaughter of Christians in Jerusalem and for their avowed hatred of the West.  

Political philosopher James Vaccano expands on the notion, including Nietzsche in the discussion:

The internal competition between tendencies or natures that Machiavelli recognizes in individuals and groups and that Nietzsche sees as multiple drives is a form of “agonism.”  Agonism is the idea that conflict and struggle are the natural basis of life and that this is replicated in social, political, and cultural life. Human artifice can in many ways transform nature, but it does not eliminate the presence and preeminence of conflict in individual human consciousness and Nietzsche’s Machiavellianism in social groups.

The world has never been one of compassion, compromise, or good will; but always ruled by realpolitik and the ineluctable human nature which fuels it. 

Donald Trump in joining in the Machiavellian, realpolitik world view of Putin and Xi of China, has joined the world's ruling triumvirate - not one united and collegial but joined in outlook, perspective and policy. 

It is time that the United States and Europe realize the handwriting on the wall and cease their reflexive, idealistic support for Ukraine.