Fast Food, Fast Women, And Fast Wars - Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, If You Can't Get It Over Quick, Forget About It

Donald Trump had a surprise coming after a missile eliminated the Grand Vizier of Iran, after the exiled Shah's son said he was ready to return to Tehran and take over the reins of power, and after thousands of Iranians danced in the street celebrating the overthrow of the regime.

 

However Iran was not giving up.  As a matter of fact it launched a counter attack against just about everyone in the region, raining missiles and launching fleets of drones against friend and foe alike - a show of resilience, resolve, and military savvy.  The Iranians knew that something like this American invasion would happen, and they were ready. 

The regime's head might be cut off - the Ayatollah was dead - but twenty others had been groomed for the job, sycophants as versed in the Quran and has hateful of Israel, the Jews, and The Great Satan America as their predecessor.  

Moreover and much more importantly, the Ayatollah and the mullahs were just figureheads, bearded clerics who stood for theocracy, Islam, and a Muslim caliphate.  The real power had always rested with the IRGC - the Revolutionary Guards, a paramilitary force combining the best of the Vietcong and Papa Doc's Tonton Macoute killing squad.  Like the Vietcong they were dispersed throughout the country and had infiltrated village communities to uphold order and discipline with intimidation and brutal force. 

It was the IRGC that murdered tens of thousands of civilian protesters before the war, and it is the IRGC who operate the successful drone and missile attacks across the region. 

When the statue of Saddam Hussein was toppled in Baghdad after the American invasion, President George Bush announced, ‘Mission Accomplished', pulled American troops out, and left the country to the rest 'democratizing forces of good'.  

Of course, nothing of the kind was in the offing.  Competing militias had been waiting for this moment - for the Americans to do the job for them and pave the way for their rise - and soon enough the internecine fighting began.  Democracy had always been a vain hope for a country which had never known it, and Islamic militancy was the only real, expected outcome. 

So when the Ayatollah was decapitated, Donald Trump thought that the war would be over.  Cheering Iranians would flood the streets waving American flags and welcoming the new Shah.  No such luck.  The IRGC flexed its muscles and the war continued.

What were they thinking, these men in the war room? 

These same men had said that eliminating the Taliban in Afghanistan would be a piece of cake, nothing but a tawdry bunch of ragheads with poppies.  They had forgotten that these same tribesmen had defeated the Russians a few decades before - ironically with American military assistance - and that Afghanistan in its long history had never been conquered or occupied. 

Never mind, the war planners said, times have changed.  They had not of course, and after a short military presence, former President Biden pulled out all American troops. 

America has never had patience for long-term anything.  Had George Bush left an implacable military presence in Iraq - military occupation and martial law - the country might have moved gradually towards the new Western mode of governance. Had there been a more forceful and immovable military presence in Afghanistan instead of backing a weak, corrupt puppet in the pay of the Taliban, things might have been different. 

America can be forgiven for its short-sightedness.  The gunfight in the OK corral was the very image of prairie justice - good vs evil in one final, dramatic showdown.  No procedural issues, not negotiations, no unending trials, no codicils and amendments. 

Cattle rustlers caught with someone else's beeves would be strung up then and there - extrajudicial justice on the spot.  Who needed any more proof that a band of outlaws with cattle branded with the mark of the true owner had stolen them?

Why are there no long multi-course dinners in America like there are in Italy?  Or relaxed two hour lunches, afternoon sexual liaisons, and languid, easy days as there are in France?  Or midmorning hours at the Cafe des Deux Magots? 

Because we have other things to do, no time for dallying when there's money to be made.  A quick take-out pastrami-on-rye between phone calls is the operational meme in American offices, a quick Jack Black and a Bud chaser before heading home to the suburbs, and that's that. 

Eliot Spitzer, former Governor of New York, caught in flagrante delicto with a prostitute in the bridal suite of the Mayflower Hotel, said that as governor he had no time for courtship.  He was too busy, and so too is Washington's ruling elite.  Madame de Charney's establishment for pleasure does a land office business, so time-bound and demanding are those in power. 

The Russians are in their war in Ukraine for the long haul.  They know that Americans will get sick and tired of propping up a corrupt regime no match for Russian military staying power and will soon force Zelenskyy to the bargaining table.  The Chinese have no intention of ever giving up their claims on Taiwan, and America will soon wonder what all the fuss is about and let regional politics play out. 

China and Russia have definite imperial claims dating back to empire and dynasty.  Theirs is a long history where long wars were the rule, not the exception.  American presidents cannot possibly imagine that there was ever a Hundred Year War in England and France in the 14th century.  A hundred years? Are you kidding?

And so it is that America has already lost the war in Iran.  Since the regime did not topple when the Ayatollah was killed, the drones and missiles will  keep up their counter offensive, and the Straits of Hormuz will retain in Iranian control given the world's need for the oil transported through them. 

There will eventually be a cease fire and peace agreement. The Iranians will sign anything, knowing that they will be able to rebuild their nuclear facilities in time, rearm renascent Hamas and Hezbollah and support them in their anti-Israel terrorism, and continue their potent Islamic theocracy. 

When asked what the object of the war in Iran is, the President of the United States had no ready answer, for he doesn't know.  All he does know is that the American electorate in an election year is getting tired of the war and wants it over and done with. 

The world understands America - how could it not when the only country which pays no attention to history is the United States. The American Left actually wants to erase history, pretend it didn't happen, and create their own new fantastical version of the past. 

So, the Iranian theocracy has held on for almost fifty years and will stay on for many more.  Russia and China, America's adversaries if not enemies know this well and incorporate its certain defeat into their own geopolitical strategies.  Donald Trump's Sturm und Drang is welcome, and he intends to become one of the Machiavellian triumvirate joining Russia and China, but such aggressiveness means nothing without will, patience, long-term intent, and resounding, long-lasting power.