"Whenever I go into a restaurant, I order both a chicken and an egg to see which comes first"

Friday, March 16, 2012

Growing Up With Billy Bubbles, The Most Gullible Boy In The World

Billy Bubbles was gullible, perhaps the most gullible person I know.  He took everything as is, never questioned it or wondered if there could be another truth.  When he was six, an older boy sold him a piece of scrap metal painted with red nail polish and told him it was giant’s blood.  His brothers told him that the world was filled with sea monsters and undead pterodactyls.  They told him that the scary wraiths moving on his wall at night by the light of the moon were not simply the shadows of trees but actually spirits that dwelled in them and came out at night.  After reading The Time Machine, his brothers told Billy that the dark shapes moving in the basement of the factories on Arch Street were morlocks, deformed gnomes that worked in chains during the day and retreated into the deep underground by night.

As a result, Billy Bubbles lived in a world of demi-fear.  He also believed that there was a beneficent God who lived on an airy throne just behind the giant cumulus clouds that built up like mountains in the summer heat over the plains; that He had a celestial palace full of angels who could come down from the heavens and with a sprinkle of gold dust remove the tree spirits and morlocks from the earth.  Knowing that God was high up on top of the clouds surrounded by his army of avenging angels didn’t take away the fear, just balanced it with goodness.

As he got older, Billy learned that each of the fantasies spun by his brothers were just that – imagined tales by older siblings to tease and torture.  One by one he left them behind; but because he was so gullible – born gullible we all thought – he took on new fables in which he believed as much as the goblins and fanged, fire-breathing dragons of his childhood.  He was helped along by his father, Bobby Bubbles who was just as gullible as Billy but in a more pernicious, twisted, and totally demented way.  He was a conspiracy theorist long before the term became popular, and before the world got big and complex enough to spawn the hundreds of cockamamie and contrived threats with which we are familiar today.

In the early Fifties before Salk and Sabin had developed their vaccines, polio was a common and dreaded disease.  Our mothers kept us shut in during the high transmission summer season – no swimming pools or movie theatres, no playing with other kids toys, etc.  Bobby Bubbles added a new twist.  Not only was polio epidemic in the United States, it was caused and spread by the Russians.  They had developed a virulent mutation of the already potent virus, and had developed a technology to deliver it effectively.  They used high-altitude spy-type planes to spray an infected aerosol over our territory.  They infiltrated crop-duster cooperatives in the Midwest and Russian spies sprayed polio over peaceful, innocent towns of Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas; and secret operatives poured vials of lethal polio toxins into the reservoirs of all our major cities.  Once we had become a nation of palsied, crooked people, surviving in wheelchairs or in vast caravans of iron lungs, the Russians would take over.

During the polio scare, Bobby Bubbles transformed his house into a hermetically-sealed fortress.  Windows and doors were double-and triple-paned, soldered and fire-sealed.  The one air vent in the house had been fitted with five filtration systems, each specially treated with anti-viral chemicals.  Tutors for the boys had to be polio survivors – that is, no longer infected – and even so, they had to pass through three airlocks of decontaminants to enter.  All food that was delivered by Brown’s Market had also to pass through the decontaminating airlocks.  All meat was cooked until as tough as leather to burn any telltale contaminating juices from it.  The carrots were baked so long that they looked like scrawny, black fingers.  The peas clinked like buckshot when dropped onto the serving plate, and the mashed potatoes were a gluey, half-solid mess.

The polio scare ended, Salk and Sabin worked their wonders, and Bobby Bubbles took down his ramparts and battlements and life returned more or less to normal.  Then came Sputnik – the worst of all Bubbles’ fears.  The Russians could now enter our brains! Sputnik was the only satellite that we had discovered in orbit, but there were certainly hundreds of others up there.  Bubbles’ sources flooded his mailbox soon after the horrifying news.  He was on every conspiracy list in the United States, and crates of mail were delivered to his home each week.  The Russians had developed a death ray that could zap down from space and incinerate us.  They were altering the geo-magnetic field, depolarizing our cells so that we would collapse into flabby, rubbery, empty skin-suits and all of our telephones would stop working.  The worst scenario was that the Russians had figured out a way to penetrate our brains, infect our thought processes and turn us all into Communists.  The radio was the prime source of invasion.

The giant Zenith 12-band shortwave radio had been Billy’s companion during the isolation years of the polio scare.  He used to tune into it every night, pulling in transmissions from countries he had never even heard of.  His father listened in to Radio Moscow, and along with hundreds of co-conspiracy theorists, took notes and compared them, trying to decipher the hidden code communicating to Russian agents throughout the US where they should infiltrate and introduce their poisons.  The wall above the radio was a crazy puzzle of tacked-up notes, graphs, dynamic swirls of arrows and missile thrusts, all meaning something, but what?  It was like a schizophrenic’s nightmare. 

However when Sputnik went up, the Zenith went out.  Billy’s father was convinced that the Russians were using radio waves as a means of infiltrating our minds, and any direct link with Radio Moscow would be inviting brain invasion.  Even if he didn’t tune in to broadcasts from the Soviet Union, Sputnik was the intermediary for all earthly radio waves and they could be hijacked and used in the Communist cause.  So, in a huge bonfire in the backyard of the modest Bubbles home on Burritt Street in New Brighton, the Zenith went up in smoke; but not before the tubes blew, the plastic twisted and melted in acrid fumes, and the once-beloved screen, with all its numbered and calibrated short wave bands in precisely measured black and red segments, shriveled, crumpled, and disappeared.

Billy, although gullible, was not stupid; and despite the years of home-schooling and tutoring, managed to get into college – a small, conservative Midwestern school – and majored in Biology.  Despite his father’s ultra-Right Wing beliefs and his visceral and schizophrenic hatred of Communism and the Soviet Union, Billy Bubbles fell in with radical Left Wingers, perhaps not so surprisingly, since conspiracy cabals of both left and right existed throughout the United States.  These students believed that Communism was the savior of mankind – that the principles of Marx and Lenin were far more egalitarian than our own.  The French Revolution and English Enlightenment were nothing compared to the Great People’s Liberation of 1917, the establishment of a truly collaborative, cooperative union, and the necessary purifications of the Stalin era.  It was the American government which was the enemy of the people, which sought to subjugate the population.  Capitalism was slavery without masters and whips, but no different in its desire to rule, manipulate, degrade, and destroy.

This all was standard, pro-forma leftist screed; but what attracted Billy Bubbles was the same awareness of subterranean, complex, and insidious forces that were organizing to defeat the armies of progressive social change that his father had realized.  It was now ‘The Government’ that was reaching out its electronic tentacles, deploying its duplicitous spies and informants to destroy hope.  Billy’s indirect training from his wacko father now came in handy.  He was able to wake up his fellow conspirators to the dangers of radio waves and the mind-altering elements found in vaccinations and fluoridation.  Was there any doubt that two universal and mandatory programs had been co-opted by the CIA and FBI on behalf of the Fascist State of America?  Billy recruited techie geeks from Engineering to set up anti-surveillance systems that could detect wire-tapping.  He had them reroute the electrical connections to all radios and televisions.  He insisted that all his friends wore special double-polarized lenses when they watched TV to detect micro-camera waves and optical scanners. 

The assassination of John F. Kennedy was the Sputnik of Billy’s day.  There was no doubt that the CIA, FBI, the Mafia, and the Cubans were in cahoots.  One lone gunman? Give me a break, said Billy and his friends and tens of thousands of conspirators who had been languishing in cold garages and damp basements for years without a cause.  Billy believed all the theories: Castro was pissed at Kennedy and the Bay of Pigs and wanted him out of the way.  The Mafia was in league with Batista’s gambling interests and killed Kennedy and were about to kill Castro in an attempt to restore a stable autocracy, favorable to business interests on the island.  The White Supremacists of the South wanted Kennedy and his little brother dead because of their stance on civil rights.  Ultra-right wing Protestants wanted the Catholic Kennedy dead and gone from the clutches of the Vatican.  The International Jewish Brotherhood wanted him dead because of his dangerous position on banking. 

Any one of these conspiracy theories could be true, thought Billy, and probably many of them were true at the same time.  Now, you could not possibly know whom to trust – there was a dynamic and confluent complex of perfidious political, financial, and social movements out to destroy the United States.  Jews were suspect as were Italians.  The new President, Lyndon B. Johnson, had been born in Mexico, and out of allegiance to the country of his birth and a desire for an easy retirement, helped the country develop its emerging drug trade.  He had enlisted the CIA to work with their Mexican counterparts to assure porous borders unimpeded by law.  Then came the war in Vietnam during which thousands of Manchurian Candidates had been brainwashed in Hanoi’s prisoner-of-war camps, deployed to the United States to search and destroy pro-war politicians.

Around 1980, Billy Bubbles’ mind crashed.  It had been swirling and increasingly confused by agents of tangled webs.  Radio waves had, despite all his efforts, penetrated his brain.  He surely had drunk fluoride-contaminated water, been zapped through the eyeballs by hidden emissions from his TV, gotten Communist-incubated viruses through sexual intercourse.  He felt violated, invaded, polluted, and wild with anxiety.  They were out there; but who were they? And when would they perform the coup de grace?

Billy was saved by Cassandra Learner, the charismatic high priestess of the Church Glorious and Resplendent, a kooky California cult that left Santa Barbara when Learner saw in a dream that the coast would be hived off from the rest of the continent in a ravaging earthquake that would split the state from bunghole to gullet in twenty minutes and send everything from the beaches to Pasadena drifting off towards Hawaii.  Learner moved the community to a valley in northern Idaho to be safe from disaster and to be far from the inspecting and prying eyes of non-believers.  The cult was based on Learner’s prophecy that the world would end in a fiery nuclear Armageddon within our lifetime, and that Church members had to build a warren of bomb shelters under the valley for when that day would come.  It never did, of course, and Learner explained the salvation by saying, “God has listened to our prayers”.  Meanwhile she got rich through hundreds of kickbacks from the construction companies, purveyors of water and canned food, sanitation engineering companies, etc.  Her congregation believed her when she said that their prayers and good living saved the day, and the Church never lacked for members.

Billy had been approached by one of Cassandra Learner’s evangelists who were on the lookout for lost and troubled souls.  Learner was a canny businesswoman who understood her market, and knew that the places to look were in the dens of conspiracy.  Those who believed that the world was not as it seemed, were her prey.  She took in everyone and offered them a home – one, easy, simple conspiracy theory according to which they were organized into a loving, caring, but determined community: The Soviet Union would start a nuclear war, and everyone except the members of The Church Glorious and Resplendent would be destroyed.  Church members, who would be housed a half-mile underground with enough provisions to last ten years, would emerge and repopulate a world without enemies and conspirators.

Of course there had to be the usual religious mumbo-jumbo, icons and references to Jesus, Mohammed, Buddha, Padre Pio and every other spiritual character who had surfaced in three millennia, but it was all window dressing and ritual designed to consolidate the one true belief of the Church – they were the Chosen Few. 

Billy Bubbles was very happy there, but when 1989 came and the Iron Curtain came down, and there was no longer a Soviet Union to start a nuclear holocaust, Cassandra Learner disappeared into thin air, and despite reported sightings in Belize and the Cote d’Azur, she, and all the treasures of the Church, were gone.

Billy wandered in a kind of grey, featureless limbo for the next twenty years.  He had gotten accreditation as a Montessori teacher while in Idaho, and it was not difficult for him to find reasonable employment in Dubuque, St. Paul, and Athol Massachusetts.  Then Barack Obama was elected and he felt reborn.  The grey pall that had surrounded him for so long disappeared.  He once again had a cause.  Barack Obama was an illegitimately-elected President who was not an American citizen, was a Muslim, radical Black Nationalist, and fulminating Communist who had to be stopped at all costs. America had been under assault before, but not like this.  Re-electing this man would be like inviting God to hurl his thunder and lightning down on us all.  Billy returned to his roots, and became just like his father.  Just as Bobby Bubbles’ had received tons of heavy packets of brochures, books, pamphlets, and unevenly-scrawled treatises on mind-invasion from the Post Office, Billy’s email Inbox was equally crammed full.  ‘You have 1000 new messages’ was not an unfamiliar message from Gmail; nor was the warning, ‘You have reached your Inbox storage limit.  Please delete unnecessary files’.

The Internet was magical fount of information.  Emails poured in from every state in the union, some rabid and virulent, spewing hate and bile about Obama; others cloaked in garments of rationality, but barely concealing the fearful warnings about Socialist Armageddon and the destruction of our society.  This godless heathen, bound to create an American Caliphate, they said, would stop at nothing.

Billy was happier than he had ever been in his life.  In one fell swoop he was reunited with his father (dead for many years, but reunited in spirit), rejoined with the spiritual forces of truth which had always motivated him, and found a long-lost community in a social network of like-minded patriots.   Approaching 70, he still worked long and tireless hours, sending, resending, and circulating everything that came through his computer relevant to the Obama menace.  He joined local Ultra-Right Wing political associations, and lit up like a Broadway billboard with the fire and incendiary rhetoric.  He wrote letters to the editor to hundreds of liberal newspapers, blogs, and websites.  He was indefatigable.

Obama, however, was re-elected by an overwhelming majority.  Billy and his fellow conspiracists were crestfallen.  How could Americans not have seen through the charade of the man?  How could they have elected such an insidious threat?  Most importantly, now, with his lifeblood leaking way, his beloved community straying and dissolving, what was Billy going to do with his life?  He was suddenly tired, and felt his age.  He had saved little money, and had few friends and they were scattered or dead.

All I knew was that Billy, like Cassandra Learner, had disappeared.  Suddenly the daily deluge of crackpot emails went dry.  Nothing.  Not a peep.  No pop-ups on Facebook, no White Pages or Yellow Pages or Google searches could locate him. 

I remembered well our days together in New Brighton.  I was one of the first to see the piece of metal with the red nail polish.  I walked home from Vance School with him before his father had shuttered him in against the plague, and we hacked around, throwing rocks at birds, messing with the neighbors’ flowerbeds.  He was a nice kid.  I knew he took a lot of shit from his brothers who threw all kinds of impossible stories at him; and he was indeed the most gullible boy I had ever met.  After his disappearance into the ether, I often reflected on his particular failing, that unfairly twisted strand of DNA that made both him and his father go far around the bend.  I even read about the pathology of conspiracy theorists and psychological, sociological factors; and yes, genetic predisposition to erratic belief.  Whatever ailed Billy Bubbles, however, ails a lot of people in this great country; and most of them, aside from the convolutions of their theories, are really nice people – gardeners, coaches, cooks, raconteurs.  Thank goodness for that.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Goldman Sachs and Moral Values

A few days ago, Greg Smith resigned from Goldman Sachs, that venerable scion of Wall Street because of what he saw was its pervasive immoral and irresponsible practices .  I have written recently about James Q. Wilson and his thoughts on the importance of a strong moral sense and character in public life, whether it be in the inner city or on Wall Street, and his themes are very relevant here.

“Until early Wednesday morning, Greg Smith was a largely anonymous 33-year-old midlevel executive at Goldman Sachs in London. Now everyone at the firm — and on Wall Street — knows his name. Mr. Smith resigned in an e-mail message to his bosses at 6:40 a.m. London time, laying out concerns that Goldman’s culture had gone haywire, putting its own interests ahead of its clients.” (From NYT 3.15.12)

Smith wrote an Op-Ed piece in the New York Times which appeared yesterday (3.14.12) describing the reprehensible behavior he saw within the organization.  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/opinion/why-i-am-leaving-goldman-sachs.html?ref=business

When the history books are written about Goldman Sachs, they may reflect that the current chief executive officer, Lloyd C. Blankfein, and the president, Gary D. Cohn, lost hold of the firm’s culture on their watch. I truly believe that this decline in the firm’s moral fiber represents the single most serious threat to its long-run survival.

What did Goldman Sachs do that earned the ire and criticism of Smith?

What are three quick ways to become a leader? a) Execute on the firm’s “axes,” which is Goldman-speak for persuading your clients to invest in the stocks or other products that we are trying to get rid of because they are not seen as having a lot of potential profit. b) “Hunt Elephants.” In English: get your clients — some of whom are sophisticated, and some of whom aren’t — to trade whatever will bring the biggest profit to Goldman. Call me old-fashioned, but I don’t like selling my clients a product that is wrong for them. c) Find yourself sitting in a seat where your job is to trade any illiquid, opaque product with a three-letter acronym.

It gets worse.  Not only did Goldman have this policy of taking advantage of its clients for corporate profits, it bred an ethos of sarcastic, demeaning, and dismissive attitudes:

It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off. Over the last 12 months I have seen five different managing directors refer to their own clients as “muppets,” sometimes over internal e-mail. Even after the S.E.C., Fabulous Fab, Abacus, God’s work, Carl Levin, Vampire Squids? No humility? I mean, come on. Integrity? It is eroding. I don’t know of any illegal behavior, but will people push the envelope and pitch lucrative and complicated products to clients even if they are not the simplest investments or the ones most directly aligned with the client’s goals? Absolutely. Every day, in fact….

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the junior analyst sitting quietly in the corner of the room hearing about “muppets,” “ripping eyeballs out” and “getting paid” doesn’t exactly turn into a model citizen.

There is little more to add here, except to see how easy it is for a company and its employees to stray from principles which were moral and which created exactly the environment of trust and confidence necessary to keep and attract clients. Here is what Goldman was:

Culture was always a vital part of Goldman Sachs’s success. It revolved around teamwork, integrity, a spirit of humility, and always doing right by our clients.. It wasn’t just about making money; this alone will not sustain a firm for so long. It had something to do with pride and belief in the organization.

One has to wonder how this happened.  How did a company go from one based on character and moral values to one which disregarded them?.  Something must have happened in the 80s when deregulation was the flavor of the day, Wall Street was flush, and university graduates began to turn away from the social conscience of the 60s and 70s to Wall Street.  ‘I-Banking’ was the way to go – hard work rewarded with untold wealth, respect, New York living.  What could be more seductive?. 

Morning in America became the revolutionary slogan of individualism, enterprise, wealth, and pride.  Young people should leave the dingy alleys of liberal do-goodism and increase their sphere of influence.  Working with one community would be nothing compared to the social and economic impact resulting from wise macro--investments.  Wealth creates wealth.  Smith’s clients had a total asset value of more than a trillion dollars!  It was a heady business.  It was easy to see how young I-Bankers could become arrogant and self-centered when the lives of tens of thousands were at their fingertips.  “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely” said Lord Acton; and while he was referring to dictatorial political power, it is also applies to financial power.  I-Bankers were supreme leaders, supremely intelligent, able to create and destroy.  And they were only in their 30s.

The advent of derivatives and hedge funds complicated both financial and moral issues.  Making bad loans then quickly selling them to a mortgage company, bank, or insurance company gave more moral latitude than ever should have been permitted.  ‘Not my problem anymore’, said young I-Bankers, ‘buyer beware’ and all that; and besides, once the bad loan gets bundled, repackaged, resold ten times, it is totally lost as the connection between an individual loan and a young I-Banker is lost for good.  Why worry?

Perhaps in an era of individualism, in a buyer-beware marketplace, and ‘A fool and his money are soon parted’ and ‘A sucker is born every day’ mentality, it is easy to justify and tolerate a few wobbly morals.

Perhaps as Wilson, Alan Bloom, William Bennett, and others have written, moral erosion begins early.  Parents do not take the time, the effort to insist on honesty, responsibility, respect for others.  Little offenses are ignored, like buying  a pair of shoes, wearing them for a day, then returning them.  “No one is hurt”, complains your son to your rebuke.  “Their policy is easy returns”; and you are too tired to explain the difference.

Perhaps moral values are ignored in schools because they smack of absolutism, standards, and principles, all inappropriate in a multi-cultural setting where relativism is necessary because of diversity.

Goldman Sachs of course responded critically to Smith’s expose.  They have never done what he said.  The same ethos of integrity, honesty, and responsibility exist.  I doubt it.  This well-educated, promising, and ambitious young man had the wealth of Croesus within his grasp, and he turned it down.  Goldman Sachs, has been outed.  Are we surprised?  I don’t think so.

I don’t see too many signs of a return to principle and values.  Articles and books are being written both about Wall Street and about the failure of communities and families to insist on character, morals, and ethical behavior.  We are looking to traditional Asian families in America which consistently do better on every educational indicator than whites or other minorities – despite modest incomes, second language, and cultural displacement – in part because of their rigorous and inflexible insistence on values and excellence.  As we disaggregate the excesses and failures of Wall Street, we try to go back to first causes, as I have in this article.  The pieces of the social puzzle are being slowly put together – maybe there is a systemic problem in America; that just as we are suffering from the excesses of the Sixties, so are we suffering from the Eighties.  History affords us perspective and opportunity; and if we put on the lenses of morality and character and look at every social enterprise through them, we might well craft a better and more harmonious whole. 

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

It Never Was About the Condoms

In an excellent article in today’s (3.13.12) New York Times by David Brooks, he writes about The Fertility Implosion, reflecting on the dramatic reductions in fertility in most countries. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/opinion/brooks-the-fertility-implosion.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

Despite decades of US intervention, tens of millions of dollars, and hundreds of millions of condoms, advertising campaigns promoting small families, improvements in education and especially income are what most directly affect birth rate and family size.  There are numerous examples to show how sensitive fertility is to income.  Italy and Quebec (Canada) had some of the highest fertility rates in the post-WWII era, but as both gained in income, fertility rates dropped to among the lowest in the world.  Passionately Catholic countries like Ireland followed suit – large families became the exception as young couples saw the economic advantages of fewer children.

Countries of the former Soviet bloc whose birth rates had been kept artificially high because of stringent anti-abortion measures, plummeted after 1989 as real income dropped precipitously.  India’s fertility rate in the economically developed South is approaching replacement levels where in the less-developed and poorer North, these rates are much higher.

As economist Amartya Sen pointed out years ago during the intensive and largely unsuccessful US efforts to influence fertility through mass media campaigns and free condom distribution, Indian villagers, because of their marginal economic existence and reliance on family labor, were unwilling to reduce fertility.  More strong arms meant assuring subsistence and perhaps some measure of economic progress.  Not only that, he argued, these uneducated farmers did not have the information that indicated that mortality rates were falling, and that the chances of children surviving were far greater than ever before.  Had they understood this, Sen argued, they might have taken steps to reduce fertility.  Once again, income and education were predictors of fertility.  No amount of well-crafted, ‘persuasive’ advertisements would change the minds of the many subsistence farmers in India.

Ignorance of these economic and educational realities promoted the fallacy that there was something ‘wrong’ with these peasants – how could they not see the logic in the argument that fewer children meant happier families, the wisdom long since adopted in the West?  Or, as development planners concluded, something must be wrong with the advertising.

Kerala (India) has always been used as an example of the importance of education – especially girls’ education as factors in lower fertility.  Kerala’s per capita income is lower than most low-fertility countries or regions but quality primary and secondary education is universal. 

As Brooks notes:

Usually, high religious observance and low income go along with high birthrates. But, according to the United States Census Bureau, Iran now has a similar birth rate to New England — which is the least fertile region in the U.S.

This can at least partly be explained by education.  In Iran 96 percent of primary school-age children are enrolled, and nearly 90 percent complete primary education.  For secondary school enrollment, Iran ranks 9th out of the 171 countries ranked by UNESCO.  Girls secondary education lags behind boys but is not insignificant at close to 60 percent.

The speed of the change is breathtaking. A woman in Oman today has 5.6 fewer babies than a woman in Oman 30 years ago. Morocco, Syria and Saudi Arabia have seen fertility-rate declines of nearly 60 percent, and in Iran it’s more than 70 percent. These are among the fastest declines in recorded history.

While income and education are the most important factors affecting fertility, the impact of Western media cannot be discounted.  Despite the attempts of many countries to restrict Internet access, films, and television from the West, information about small, upwardly mobile, successful small families are the norm; and attractive, Hollywood norms have always had an influence on behavior.

The era in which I worked in Family Planning, or ‘Population’ as the United Nations liked to call it, was one that was dominated by the theory that if you marketed family planning and its products like any other commercial product, company, or program, you would change behavior.  I must take responsibility for this theory, because I was one of the first exponents of what is now called Social Marketing.  In 1970 I developed a mass media-marketing campaign in India which was based on the advertising model: if you develop a persuasive selling campaign, you can influence choice.  Family planning should, in principle, be no different than shampoo or coffee. 

I was wrong on many fronts – the most important of which was that I and legions after me failed to appreciate the importance of income and education as determinants of fertility.  Secondly, I vastly overestimated the power of advertising.  It is successful in the United States because it has tens of millions of dollars to spend to influence market share by a fraction of one percent; and because it influences this market share on products that are inexpensive and affordable.  Changing sexual and reproductive behavior was another thing altogether.  It was another case of American exceptionalism gone wrong.  Somehow we Americans always feel that we have the right answers and refuse to take off our ideological lenses.

In any case, fertility has continued to drop, which leads Brooks to say, quoting Eberstadt (AEI)  that “the 21st century is looking like the century of the fertility implosion”.

Such an implosion has consequences unforeseen a few decades ago.  China implemented its coercive One-Child policy and was very successful – so successful, in fact, that it will have a shortage of young people not only to support its aged but to compete with India, Europe, and America.

India, which had only one bad patch of attempted coercion under Indira Gandhi, muddled along with low productivity, low GDP, only very slowly rising incomes, and high fertility.  Only after 1999 when the Indian government threw off its Socialist chains and liberalized its economy, did everything take off.  Incomes rose, fertility declined; but because this decline started recently and gradually, India has the unplanned but fortuitous benefit of a large, well-educated young population.  India, many economists believe, will soon overtake China in GDP and will maintain its superiority for decades to come.

Low fertility in Europe (significantly below that of the US) contributes indirectly to social tensions. More and more immigrants are required to labor in the collieries and factories, and many of them come from the Muslim quarters of Africa and the Middle East.  The French government was notorious for offering large subsidies to native French families to increase their fertility.  The amount offered was so far below the actual cost of raising and educating a child, even under the welfare state, that the program not surprisingly was unsuccessful.

So the days of naïve interventionist programs in fertility control such as those by USAID are numbered; and those macro-level policies such as those of China will probably never be repeated.  The Law of Unintended Consequences may finally be respected after all. 

Governments will always tinker with population policy.  Today they are addressing immigration rather than fertility; but ultimately population size and its increase or decrease will finally depend on supply and demand.