"Whenever I go into a restaurant, I order both a chicken and an egg to see which comes first"

Saturday, February 3, 2024

A Wartime President? Biden, Israel, And Mortal Fear Of Iran

There is good reason to be afraid of Iran.  The ayatollahs are crazy motherfuckers ready to send nuclear missiles Israel's way.  The treaty concluded by Obama only drove their arms industry underground, gave them a generous grace period, and made no mention of Hamas, Hezbollah, or clients in Iraq and Syria. 


Obama was snookered by the mullahs and gave them the store. Under the conditions of the treaty Iran was free to destabilize the Middle East, ramp up its isolation of Israel, continue to develop a nuclear capability for 'peaceful, civilian' use, and avoid serious inspection of their fissionable warhead development.  Iran is a far more influential geopolitical force than before the treaty, the consequences of which have been seen in the genocidal attack by Hamas on Israel. 

Iranian influence is expanding, for not only is it active in Palestine and Lebanon, but in the Red Sea where it is supporting Houthi terrorist attacks on international shipping, particularly United States interests.  Its backing of Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Iraq and Syria is an attempt not only to encircle Israel with hostile forces, but to defy American aspirations of regional hegemony. 


The US has (2/24) responded militarily by bombing selected terrorist bases in Iraq, Syria, and Houthi installations on the Red Sea.   However history has shown that such desultory action serves little or no purpose.  ISIS, another Iranian client thought to be neutralized by Western military action, was never destroyed either as a paramilitary force or political one and is now active throughout the Sahel.

Similarly Hamas, naively thought to have been similarly neutralized by democratic recognition after elections and the withdrawal of Israeli troops, was simply biding its time to build - with Iranian help - a powerful military strike force and defensive infrastructure. Only concertedly defiant and overwhelming force - such as what Israel is demonstrating in Gaza - can destroy the enemy. 

Iran, clearly, publicly, and unabashedly, is slowly and progressively reaching its goal of a fundamentalist Islamic caliphate in the Middle East.  Biden's surgical airstrikes will not deter Iran one bit, for it knows that the US - at least under the naive and fearful Biden - will do nothing more than obliterate a few buildings  It will 'send a message' so tepid and transparently political (2024 is a presidential election year), that neither the Quds Force nor Iran will cease and desist. 

They know that Biden, under pressure from a growing number of American supporters who demand a ceasefire, an immediate recognition of a Palestinian state, and the destruction of Israel, will be even more conciliatory than ever before.  Jewish lobby? Once American Middle East politics was ruled by powerful Jewish interests, but such political influence is largely a thing of the past.  The electoral landscape has changed and the progressive movement has all but neutralized any serious, long term commitment to Israel.  


Biden's fear of Iran and its crazed mullahs, and the growing political abandonment of Israel play directly into Iran's hands.  No matter how many insignificant military strikes in the Red Sea and Syria, Iran knows that soon enough the United States will, 'in the name of peace' renege on its historical alliance with Israel.  Palestinian 'peace' is tantamount to handing the keys to the region to the ayatollahs. 

If Trump wins, the calculus will be different. As President he cancelled the Iranian Nuclear Arms deal, restored sanctions, and made it clear that he would not only respond in kind to any Iranian nuclear threat, but would deal unequivocally with its Islamic expansionism.  There is no doubt that he would redouble these efforts, renew American support for Israel, and reinstate America's claim to a Middle Eastern power. 

If Biden wins, the anti-Israel, pro-Palestinian, and pro-Iranian lobbies win.  He will be beholden to them, and leaving Israel to fend for itself will be an easy decision.  Of course if that happens - that is if Israel is left without American support - war with Iran is a near certainty.  Israel is not simply fighting a defensive war in Gaza; it is fighting an existential one.  It would only take an American retreat for Israel to be attacked on all sides; and Israel would pull out all stops to assure its survival.  

The mullahs in Iran know that America has never had the will to fight ever since Vietnam, and although the US reacted militarily to Saddam Hussein and al-Qaeda, it never had any commitment to real victory.  If it had, it would have militarily occupied Iraq and suppressed any radical Islamic insurgency; and it would have assured that the Taliban would never again be a player in Afghanistan.  It pulled out of both places, however, and the region and the world are far worse off for it.

Despite US support for Ukraine, it has refused any direct involvement, for that would mean a war with Russia, another adversary of which it is mortally afraid.  Biden keeps pouring money into an increasingly weak and corrupt Ukrainian regime, and it disappears down the rathole.  Good intentions, flapdoodle about democracy and sovereignty aside, Biden has no stomach for real confrontation. 

The lesson is not lost on Iran.  It has staying power.  The establishment of an Islamic Caliphate might take time, but they have patience and absolute commitment to wait.

America lost its resolve after WWII when it understood that Adolph Hitler was a genocidal dictator with hegemonic intentions; and that Imperial Japan would stop at nothing to spread its influence. Europe would be Nazi Germany's and Asia Japan's if they had not been stopped.  It took no time for the US to firebomb Dresden and Tokyo and level Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Even after the loss of the Vietnam War and the visible failure of US ambitions in Southeast Asia, the dismal 'hearts and minds' ethos to minimize civilian and US military casualties at the expense of total victory continues to this day.  The likes of the ayatollahs, Putin, and Kim Jong-Un realize it and celebrate it. 

Iran under Biden's presidency has increased its regional influence and advanced towards its goal of regional hegemony and ultimate Islamic rule.  The US has shown itself to be befuddled, hesitant, and afraid, trapped within a capitulating, airy idealism of its own making.  Military might notwithstanding, America has lost the will to fight, and has confused national interests with flimsy international ones.  Gone are the Kissinger days of Machiavellian realpolitik in America, but not by a longshot in Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. 

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.